Closing Probability

OutSales includes an AI-powered closing probability feature that scores each deal based on engagement patterns and CRM data. This score helps you prioritize your follow-up efforts and focus on the most promising opportunities.

How It Works

For each activity processed by your agent, the AI calculates a closing probability as part of the pipeline. The calculation considers multiple data points from your CRM:

• Contact name and deal details (title, value, currency, status)
• Follow-up count -- How many follow-ups have been sent to this prospect
• Reply behavior -- Whether the prospect has replied, total number of replies, and overall response rate
• CRM notes -- A summary of notes and interactions logged in Pipedrive
• Email thread -- Recent email messages exchanged with the prospect

The Probability Score

The AI generates a score ranging from 10% to 80%, along with a text explanation of the reasoning behind the score. The score reflects the AI's assessment of how likely the deal is to close based on the available data.

Viewing the Score

You can see the closing probability in two places:

1. Activity Drawer -- Open any activity by clicking its row in the Activities table. The "Closing Probability" section appears below the Next Activity section, showing:

   • The percentage score (e.g., "45%")
   • A detailed AI-generated explanation of why the score was assigned

2. People Trend Tab -- The People Trend tab provides engagement analytics for all contacts, with lead status categories that reflect the AI's assessment of each contact's engagement level.

Score Interpretation

While exact thresholds may vary based on your prompt configuration, here is a general guide:

The AI explanation provides specific reasoning, such as "Prospect replied to 2 of 4 follow-ups, showing moderate interest" or "No replies after 5 follow-ups, suggesting low engagement."

Lead Status Categories

The People Trend tab groups contacts into four lead status categories based on the AI analysis:

• Very Hot -- Highly engaged prospects with strong closing signals
• Responsive -- Prospects who are replying and showing interest
• Low -- Prospects with minimal engagement
• Not Responsive -- Prospects who have not replied to multiple follow-ups

Summary cards at the top of the People Trend tab show the count of contacts in each category, giving you a quick overview of your pipeline health.

Customizing the Calculation

You can customize how the AI calculates closing probability:

1. Go to the agent's Settings tab.
2. Scroll to the AI Prompts section.
3. Expand the Calculate Closing Probability prompt card.
4. Edit the System Prompt to change how the AI weighs different factors.
5. Edit the User Template to adjust what data is sent to the AI.
6. Click Save.

For example, you might instruct the AI to weigh reply speed more heavily, or to factor in deal value when assessing probability.

See Template Variables for the full list of variables available in the closing probability prompt.

Tips

• Use scores to prioritize -- Focus your manual follow-up efforts on deals with mid-range scores (30-60%), where your personal touch could make the difference.
• Combine with People Trend -- Use the People Trend tab's AI suggestions (continue, pause, stop) alongside probability scores to make informed decisions about your follow-up strategy.
• Monitor score changes -- In the People Drawer (click a contact in the People Trend tab), you can see the score history and how engagement has trended over time.